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No, the British did not steal $45 trillion from India

This is an updated copy of the version on BadHistory. I plan to update it in accordance with the feedback I got.
I'd like to thank two people who will remain anonymous for helping me greatly with this post (you know who you are)
Three years ago a festschrift for Binay Bhushan Chaudhuri was published by Shubhra Chakrabarti, a history teacher at the University of Delhi and Utsa Patnaik, a Marxist economist who taught at JNU until 2010.
One of the essays in the festschirt by Utsa Patnaik was an attempt to quantify the "drain" undergone by India during British Rule. Her conclusion? Britain robbed India of $45 trillion (or £9.2 trillion) during their 200 or so years of rule. This figure was immensely popular, and got republished in several major news outlets (here, here, here, here (they get the number wrong) and more recently here), got a mention from the Minister of External Affairs & returns 29,100 results on Google. There's also plenty of references to it here on Reddit.
Patnaik is not the first to calculate such a figure. Angus Maddison thought it was £100 million, Simon Digby said £1 billion, Javier Estaban said £40 million see Roy (2019). The huge range of figures should set off some alarm bells.
So how did Patnaik calculate this (shockingly large) figure? Well, even though I don't have access to the festschrift, she conveniently has written an article detailing her methodology here. Let's have a look.
How exactly did the British manage to diddle us and drain our wealth’ ? was the question that Basudev Chatterjee (later editor of a volume in the Towards Freedom project) had posed to me 50 years ago when we were fellow-students abroad.
This is begging the question.
After decades of research I find that using India’s commodity export surplus as the measure and applying an interest rate of 5%, the total drain from 1765 to 1938, compounded up to 2016, comes to £9.2 trillion; since $4.86 exchanged for £1 those days, this sum equals about $45 trillion.
This is completely meaningless. To understand why it's meaningless consider India's annual coconut exports. These are almost certainly a surplus but the surplus in trade is countered by the other country buying the product (indeed, by definition, trade surpluses contribute to the GDP of a nation which hardly plays into intuitive conceptualisations of drain).
Furthermore, Dewey (2019) critiques the 5% interest rate.
She [Patnaik] consistently adopts statistical assumptions (such as compound interest at a rate of 5% per annum over centuries) that exaggerate the magnitude of the drain
Moving on:
The exact mechanism of drain, or transfers from India to Britain was quite simple.
Convenient.
Drain theory possessed the political merit of being easily grasped by a nation of peasants. [...] No other idea could arouse people than the thought that they were being taxed so that others in far off lands might live in comfort. [...] It was, therefore, inevitable that the drain theory became the main staple of nationalist political agitation during the Gandhian era.
- Chandra et al. (1989)
The key factor was Britain’s control over our taxation revenues combined with control over India’s financial gold and forex earnings from its booming commodity export surplus with the world. Simply put, Britain used locally raised rupee tax revenues to pay for its net import of goods, a highly abnormal use of budgetary funds not seen in any sovereign country.
The issue with figures like these is they all make certain methodological assumptions that are impossible to prove. From Roy in Frankema et al. (2019):
the "drain theory" of Indian poverty cannot be tested with evidence, for several reasons. First, it rests on the counterfactual that any money saved on account of factor payments abroad would translate into domestic investment, which can never be proved. Second, it rests on "the primitive notion that all payments to foreigners are "drain"", that is, on the assumption that these payments did not contribute to domestic national income to the equivalent extent (Kumar 1985, 384; see also Chaudhuri 1968). Again, this cannot be tested. [...] Fourth, while British officers serving India did receive salaries that were many times that of the average income in India, a paper using cross-country data shows that colonies with better paid officers were governed better (Jones 2013).
Indeed, drain theory rests on some very weak foundations. This, in of itself, should be enough to dismiss any of the other figures that get thrown out. Nonetheless, I felt it would be a useful exercise to continue exploring Patnaik's take on drain theory.
The East India Company from 1765 onwards allocated every year up to one-third of Indian budgetary revenues net of collection costs, to buy a large volume of goods for direct import into Britain, far in excess of that country’s own needs.
So what's going on here? Well Roy (2019) explains it better:
Colonial India ran an export surplus, which, together with foreign investment, was used to pay for services purchased from Britain. These payments included interest on public debt, salaries, and pensions paid to government offcers who had come from Britain, salaries of managers and engineers, guaranteed profts paid to railway companies, and repatriated business profts. How do we know that any of these payments involved paying too much? The answer is we do not.
So what was really happening is the government was paying its workers for services (as well as guaranteeing profits - to promote investment - something the GoI does today Dalal (2019), and promoting business in India), and those workers were remitting some of that money to Britain. This is hardly a drain (unless, of course, Indian diaspora around the world today are "draining" it). In some cases, the remittances would take the form of goods (as described) see Chaudhuri (1983):
It is obvious that these debit items were financed through the export surplus on merchandise account, and later, when railway construction started on a large scale in India, through capital import. Until 1833 the East India Company followed a cumbersome method in remitting the annual home charges. This was to purchase export commodities in India out of revenue, which were then shipped to London and the proceeds from their sale handed over to the home treasury.
While Roy's earlier point argues better paid officers governed better, it is honestly impossible to say what part of the repatriated export surplus was a drain, and what was not. However calling all of it a drain is definitely misguided.
It's worth noting that Patnaik seems to make no attempt to quantify the benefits of the Raj either, Dewey (2019)'s 2nd criticism:
she [Patnaik] consistently ignores research that would tend to cut the economic impact of the drain down to size, such as the work on the sources of investment during the industrial revolution (which shows that industrialisation was financed by the ploughed-back profits of industrialists) or the costs of empire school (which stresses the high price of imperial defence)

Since tropical goods were highly prized in other cold temperate countries which could never produce them, in effect these free goods represented international purchasing power for Britain which kept a part for its own use and re-exported the balance to other countries in Europe and North America against import of food grains, iron and other goods in which it was deficient.
Re-exports necessarily adds value to goods when the goods are processed and when the goods are transported. The country with the largest navy at the time would presumably be in very good stead to do the latter.
The British historians Phyllis Deane and WA Cole presented an incorrect estimate of Britain’s 18th-19th century trade volume, by leaving out re-exports completely. I found that by 1800 Britain’s total trade was 62% higher than their estimate, on applying the correct definition of trade including re-exports, that is used by the United Nations and by all other international organisations.
While interesting, and certainly expected for such an old book, re-exporting necessarily adds value to goods.
When the Crown took over from the Company, from 1861 a clever system was developed under which all of India’s financial gold and forex earnings from its fast-rising commodity export surplus with the world, was intercepted and appropriated by Britain. As before up to a third of India’s rising budgetary revenues was not spent domestically but was set aside as ‘expenditure abroad’.
So, what does this mean? Britain appropriated all of India's earnings, and then spent a third of it aboard? Not exactly. She is describing home charges see Roy (2019) again:
Some of the expenditures on defense and administration were made in sterling and went out of the country. This payment by the government was known as the Home Charges. For example, interest payment on loans raised to finance construction of railways and irrigation works, pensions paid to retired officers, and purchase of stores, were payments in sterling. [...] almost all money that the government paid abroad corresponded to the purchase of a service from abroad. [...] The balance of payments system that emerged after 1800 was based on standard business principles. India bought something and paid for it. State revenues were used to pay for wages of people hired abroad, pay for interest on loans raised abroad, and repatriation of profits on foreign investments coming into India. These were legitimate market transactions.
Indeed, if paying for what you buy is drain, then several billions of us are drained every day.
The Secretary of State for India in Council, based in London, invited foreign importers to deposit with him the payment (in gold, sterling and their own currencies) for their net imports from India, and these gold and forex payments disappeared into the yawning maw of the SoS’s account in the Bank of England.
It should be noted that India having two heads was beneficial, and encouraged investment per Roy (2019):
The fact that the India Office in London managed a part of the monetary system made India creditworthy, stabilized its currency, and encouraged foreign savers to put money into railways and private enterprise in India. Current research on the history of public debt shows that stable and large colonies found it easier to borrow abroad than independent economies because the investors trusted the guarantee of the colonist powers.

Against India’s net foreign earnings he issued bills, termed Council bills (CBs), to an equivalent rupee value. The rate (between gold-linked sterling and silver rupee) at which the bills were issued, was carefully adjusted to the last farthing, so that foreigners would never find it more profitable to ship financial gold as payment directly to Indians, compared to using the CB route. Foreign importers then sent the CBs by post or by telegraph to the export houses in India, that via the exchange banks were paid out of the budgeted provision of sums under ‘expenditure abroad’, and the exporters in turn paid the producers (peasants and artisans) from whom they sourced the goods.
Sunderland (2013) argues CBs had two main roles (and neither were part of a grand plot to keep gold out of India):
Council bills had two roles. They firstly promoted trade by handing the IO some control of the rate of exchange and allowing the exchange banks to remit funds to India and to hedge currency transaction risks. They also enabled the Indian government to transfer cash to England for the payment of its UK commitments.

The United Nations (1962) historical data for 1900 to 1960, show that for three decades up to 1928 (and very likely earlier too) India posted the second highest merchandise export surplus in the world, with USA in the first position. Not only were Indians deprived of every bit of the enormous international purchasing power they had earned over 175 years, even its rupee equivalent was not issued to them since not even the colonial government was credited with any part of India’s net gold and forex earnings against which it could issue rupees. The sleight-of-hand employed, namely ‘paying’ producers out of their own taxes, made India’s export surplus unrequited and constituted a tax-financed drain to the metropolis, as had been correctly pointed out by those highly insightful classical writers, Dadabhai Naoroji and RCDutt.
It doesn't appear that others appreciate their insight Roy (2019):
K. N. Chaudhuri rightly calls such practice ‘confused’ economics ‘coloured by political feelings’.

Surplus budgets to effect such heavy tax-financed transfers had a severe employment–reducing and income-deflating effect: mass consumption was squeezed in order to release export goods. Per capita annual foodgrains absorption in British India declined from 210 kg. during the period 1904-09, to 157 kg. during 1937-41, and to only 137 kg by 1946.
Dewey (1978) points out reliability issues with Indian agriculutural statistics, however this calorie decline persists to this day. Some of it is attributed to less food being consumed at home Smith (2015), a lower infectious disease burden Duh & Spears (2016) and diversified diets Vankatesh et al. (2016).
If even a part of its enormous foreign earnings had been credited to it and not entirely siphoned off, India could have imported modern technology to build up an industrial structure as Japan was doing.
This is, unfortunately, impossible to prove. Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication that India would've united (this is arguably more plausible than the given counterfactual1). Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication India would not have been nuked in WW2, much like Japan. Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication India would not have been invaded by lizard people, much like Japan. The list continues eternally.
Nevertheless, I will charitably examine the given counterfactual anyway. Did pre-colonial India have industrial potential? The answer is a resounding no.
From Gupta (1980):
This article starts from the premise that while economic categories - the extent of commodity production, wage labour, monetarisation of the economy, etc - should be the basis for any analysis of the production relations of pre-British India, it is the nature of class struggles arising out of particular class alignments that finally gives the decisive twist to social change. Arguing on this premise, and analysing the available evidence, this article concludes that there was little potential for industrial revolution before the British arrived in India because, whatever might have been the character of economic categories of that period, the class relations had not sufficiently matured to develop productive forces and the required class struggle for a 'revolution' to take place.
A view echoed in Raychaudhuri (1983):
Yet all of this did not amount to an economic situation comparable to that of western Europe on the eve of the industrial revolution. Her technology - in agriculture as well as manufacturers - had by and large been stagnant for centuries. [...] The weakness of the Indian economy in the mid-eighteenth century, as compared to pre-industrial Europe was not simply a matter of technology and commercial and industrial organization. No scientific or geographical revolution formed part of the eighteenth-century Indian's historical experience. [...] Spontaneous movement towards industrialisation is unlikely in such a situation.
So now we've established India did not have industrial potential, was India similar to Japan just before the Meiji era? The answer, yet again, unsurprisingly, is no. Japan's economic situation was not comparable to India's, which allowed for Japan to finance its revolution. From Yasuba (1986):
All in all, the Japanese standard of living may not have been much below the English standard of living before industrialization, and both of them may have been considerably higher than the Indian standard of living. We can no longer say that Japan started from a pathetically low economic level and achieved a rapid or even "miraculous" economic growth. Japan's per capita income was almost as high as in Western Europe before industrialization, and it was possible for Japan to produce surplus in the Meiji Period to finance private and public capital formation.
The circumstances that led to Meiji Japan were extremely unique. See Tomlinson (1985):
Most modern comparisons between India and Japan, written by either Indianists or Japanese specialists, stress instead that industrial growth in Meiji Japan was the product of unique features that were not reproducible elsewhere. [...] it is undoubtably true that Japan's progress to industrialization has been unique and unrepeatable
So there you have it. Unsubstantiated statistical assumptions, calling any number you can a drain & assuming a counterfactual for no good reason gets you this $45 trillion number. Hopefully that's enough to bury it in the ground.
1. Several authors have affirmed that Indian identity is a colonial artefact. For example see Rajan 1969:
Perhaps the single greatest and most enduring impact of British rule over India is that it created an Indian nation, in the modern political sense. After centuries of rule by different dynasties overparts of the Indian sub-continent, and after about 100 years of British rule, Indians ceased to be merely Bengalis, Maharashtrians,or Tamils, linguistically and culturally.
or see Bryant 2000:
But then, it would be anachronistic to condemn eighteenth-century Indians, who served the British, as collaborators, when the notion of 'democratic' nationalism or of an Indian 'nation' did not then exist. [...] Indians who fought for them, differed from the Europeans in having a primary attachment to a non-belligerent religion, family and local chief, which was stronger than any identity they might have with a more remote prince or 'nation'.

Bibliography

Chakrabarti, Shubra & Patnaik, Utsa (2018). Agrarian and other histories: Essays for Binay Bhushan Chaudhuri. Colombia University Press
Hickel, Jason (2018). How the British stole $45 trillion from India. The Guardian
Bhuyan, Aroonim & Sharma, Krishan (2019). The Great Loot: How the British stole $45 trillion from India. Indiapost
Monbiot, George (2020). English Landowners have stolen our rights. It is time to reclaim them. The Guardian
Tsjeng, Zing (2020). How Britain Stole $45 trillion from India with trains | Empires of Dirt. Vice
Chaudhury, Dipanjan (2019). British looted $45 trillion from India in today’s value: Jaishankar. The Economic Times
Roy, Tirthankar (2019). How British rule changed India's economy: The Paradox of the Raj. Palgrave Macmillan
Patnaik, Utsa (2018). How the British impoverished India. Hindustan Times
Tuovila, Alicia (2019). Expenditure method. Investopedia
Dewey, Clive (2019). Changing the guard: The dissolution of the nationalist–Marxist orthodoxy in the agrarian and agricultural history of India. The Indian Economic & Social History Review
Chandra, Bipan et al. (1989). India's Struggle for Independence, 1857-1947. Penguin Books
Frankema, Ewout & Booth, Anne (2019). Fiscal Capacity and the Colonial State in Asia and Africa, c. 1850-1960. Cambridge University Press
Dalal, Sucheta (2019). IL&FS Controversy: Centre is Paying Up on Sovereign Guarantees to ADB, KfW for Group's Loan. TheWire
Chaudhuri, K.N. (1983). X - Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments (1757–1947). Cambridge University Press
Sunderland, David (2013). Financing the Raj: The City of London and Colonial India, 1858-1940. Boydell Press
Dewey, Clive (1978). Patwari and Chaukidar: Subordinate officials and the reliability of India’s agricultural statistics. Athlone Press
Smith, Lisa (2015). The great Indian calorie debate: Explaining rising undernourishment during India’s rapid economic growth. Food Policy
Duh, Josephine & Spears, Dean (2016). Health and Hunger: Disease, Energy Needs, and the Indian Calorie Consumption Puzzle. The Economic Journal
Vankatesh, P. et al. (2016). Relationship between Food Production and Consumption Diversity in India – Empirical Evidences from Cross Section Analysis. Agricultural Economics Research Review
Gupta, Shaibal (1980). Potential of Industrial Revolution in Pre-British India. Economic and Political Weekly
Raychaudhuri, Tapan (1983). I - The mid-eighteenth-century background. Cambridge University Press
Yasuba, Yasukichi (1986). Standard of Living in Japan Before Industrialization: From what Level did Japan Begin? A Comment. The Journal of Economic History
Tomblinson, B.R. (1985). Writing History Sideways: Lessons for Indian Economic Historians from Meiji Japan. Cambridge University Press
Rajan, M.S. (1969). The Impact of British Rule in India. Journal of Contemporary History
Bryant, G.J. (2000). Indigenous Mercenaries in the Service of European Imperialists: The Case of the Sepoys in the Early British Indian Army, 1750-1800. War in History
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Since I angered some Chads on /r/investing here's why I think China is the next "big short".

Fellow idiots,
I posted this comment which seems to have angered the highly sophisticated /investing community. I don't mind being downvoted but at least provide some counter arguments if you're going to be a dick. So in the pursuit of truth and tendies for all, I have prepared some juicy due diligence (DD) for WSB Capital on why China is on the verge of collapse.
TL;DR at the bottom.
Point 1: Defaults in China have been accelerating aggressively, and through July 2019, 274 real estate developers filed for bankruptcy, up 50% over last year. A bonus? Many Chinese state controlled banks have been filing for bankruptcy as well. Just google "china bank defaults" or something similar. Notice how many articles there are from 2019? When the banking system fails, everything else usually fails too.
Point 2: The RMB has depreciated significantly. Last time this happened, in 2015-2016, there was a significant outflow of foreign invested capital. According to the IIF, outflows reached $725bn due to the currency depreciation.. This time is different why again? I have heard some arguments why there will be less outflow this time, but I struggle to buy them.
Point 3: Despite wanting to operate like a developed economy, China still has not been able to shrug off the middle income trap. Their GDP per capita is comparable to countries we normally associated with being developing/emerging markets. Tangentially related to point 10.
Point 4: China is an export-dependent economy, with about 20% of their exports contributing towards their GDP. Less exporting means less GDP, less consumption (because businesses make less money, they pay people less, who in turn spend less), which has a greater effect on GDP than any declines in exports would have at face value. Guess what? Chinese exports dropped 1% in August, and August imports dropped -1%, marking the 5th month this year of negative m/m export growth..
Point 5: Business confidence has been weak in China - declining at a sustained pace worse than in 2015. When businesses feel worse, they spend less, invest less in fixed assets, hire less until they feel better about the future. Which takes me to my next point.
Point 6: Fixed asset investment in China has declined 30 percentage points since 2010. While rates are low, confidence is also low, and they are sitting on a record amount of leverage, which means they simply will not be able to afford additional investment.
Point 7: They are an extremely levered economy with a total debt to GDP ratio of over 300%, per the IIF, which also accounts for roughly 15% of global total fucking debt. Here's an interview with someone else talking about it too.
Point 8: Their central bank recently introduced a metric fuckton of stimulus into their economy. This will encourage more borrowing....add fuel to the fire. Moreover, the stimulus will mechanically likely weaken the RMB even more, which could lead to even more foreign outflows, which are already happening, see next point.
Point 9: Fucking LOTS of outflows this year. As of MAY, according to this joint statement, around 40% of US companies are relocating some portion of their supply chains away from mainland. This was in May. Since May, we have seen even more tariffs imposed, why WOULD companies want to stay when exporting to the US is a lot more expensive now?
Point 10: Ignoring ALL of the points above, we are in a global synchronized slowdown, with many emerging market central banks cutting rates - by the most in a decade. Investors want safety, and safe-haven denominated assets are where we have seen a lot of flocking into recently. Things that can be considered safe-havens have good liquidity, a relatively stable economy, and a predictable political environment.
Would love to hear opposing thoughts if you think China is a good buy. I am not against China, nor any other country for that matter, but I am against losing money (yes, wrong sub etc.), and I can not rationalize why anyone would be putting in a bid.
TL;DR: the bubble is right in front of your face, impending doom ahead, short everything, fuck /investing.
Edit, since you 'tards keep asking me how to trade this, there are a few trades that come to mind:
*not investment advice*
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Emerging markets: Premature rally

BNP Paribas






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Acute Growth of Algorithm Trading Market Opportunity Assessments 2019-2023

Acute Growth of Algorithm Trading Market Opportunity Assessments 2019-2023
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ENCRYBIT PLATFORM: TAKING CRYPTOCURRENCIES TRADING TO THE NEXT LEVEL!

ENCRYBIT PLATFORM: TAKING CRYPTOCURRENCIES TRADING TO THE NEXT LEVEL!
https://preview.redd.it/eexoxpa89m121.jpg?width=1285&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f56e4cefb2216de43dc6a5a40c140a4606387b6c

INTRODUCTION

Blockchains and cryptocurrencies were envisioned as community-oriented open-source initiatives where the participants want to have the opportunity to make useful suggestions for the way forward of cryptocurrency exchanges and blockchain at large. This has held true with the exception of dev teams that still have a significant say in the project. Often times blockchains have a leader that everyone believes in and follows, limiting the effects of the members to take part in its management when it comes to exchanges, however, it is not that big of a deal, but ENCRYBIT is a revolution that has come to stay for the betterment of the ecosystem. ENCRYBIT was born out of a shared vision to develop a more efficient global financial system.
https://preview.redd.it/j9ygqvmc9m121.jpg?width=780&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2ed895da2f833760e9c1e6378c523e444eb2e29a

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The security concern is still quite spread between the traders, it's quite obvious since the major hacks and scams happened in regards of exchanges, the fear of losing your funds is always there when you keep them on a trading platform. Participants responses and opinions in diagram;
https://preview.redd.it/t06kwiyf9m121.jpg?width=766&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=39a3b656fc4dd92628d6150cebf88506a9251395

Encrybit can assure traders that its platform will do its best to prevent those consequences.
In the context of this article, Encrybit being an “All You Need, All in One Page” means that Encrybit and its platform want to solve those issues, trying to give users all the tools they need, all in one single page when you need them and extremely easy to use, no switching tabs and no need of third-party platforms. It doesn't matter you're trading for fun or for work, all the trader categories will be given the chance to trade in a more relaxed and engaging way.
https://preview.redd.it/6hgm3bih9m121.jpg?width=724&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4c39b39bc38d14bfc9dec9296a115a7dcd99035c

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Two Factor Authentication Wallet Address Whitelisting Withdrawal Authentication Device Authentication IP Whitelisting Multi Signature Wallet Anti-Phishing Aler
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ROADMAP

By definition, Roadmap is a plan or strategy intended to achieve a particular goal. That is to say the ENCRYBIT Roadmap is step-by-step means by which the mission of the project is to be fully achieved.
Below is a pictorial representation of the ENCRYBIT Roadmap:
https://preview.redd.it/0vixyq9m9m121.jpg?width=936&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=12c0a4b8ea07ae495ca5d7c5b73a56db25da934b
https://preview.redd.it/eh3miuin9m121.jpg?width=951&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6486737df7f240e53cded5b0acf57094a84b5934
https://preview.redd.it/selifh7p9m121.jpg?width=855&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=64b6680f48f4dc4521eaa9438accaa356251eea0

https://preview.redd.it/s1y3hzur9m121.jpg?width=873&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aaf17840b70a5c0df7546d824fbd0adedecfb491
The Encrybit project has very ambitious plans to conquer the market. Don't miss your chance to be a part of this project!
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TWITTER: https://twitter.com/enbofficial
FACEBOOK: https://www.facebook.com/encrybitofficial/

WRITER'S DETAILS
BitcoinTalk Username: cryptoblezin
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ITALIAN InziderX Whitepaper Translation

ITALIAN InziderX Whitepaper Translation

https://preview.redd.it/gp2ksmvyh3m11.png?width=1446&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c75b22ae8854cda5a5c5411ddec39aae124cdbd

Sommario

Satoshi Nakamoto; il nome stesso sembra uno pseudonimo. Fino a quando la sua identità rimarrà sconosciuta, sarà impossibile sapere quali fossero le sue reali intenzioni quando rese disponibile al pubblico il codice Bitcoin nel 2009 - basato su due tecnologie già esistenti al momento: hascash e PGP ma con l'aggiunta di una soluzione geniale al problema della doppia spesa. Il messaggio incluso nel blocco di genesi potrebbe essere un indizio: "The Times 3 gennaio 2009 Cancelliere in vista del secondo salvataggio per le banche". Ha raggiunto il suo obiettivo?


Introduzione

l'impero è in fiamme, il nuovo gioco in città è l'"asset digitale". Dopo la quotazione del future XBT, l'annuncio era ufficiale. Nonostante il biasimo per questo nuovo asset immateriale, i grandi protagonisti del "vecchio" mercato si stanno silenziosamente posizionando su quello nuovo.

Il 26 Febbraio 2018, Bloomberg ha pubblicato un articolo sostenendo che Circle Financial Ltd, supportata finanziariamente dalla più grande banca di investimento, Goldman Sach, aveva acquisito l'exchange Poloniex per $ 400 milioni USD.

La banca JPMorgan, il cui famoso direttore Jamie Dimon è noto per aver ripetutamente screditato chi investe in Bitcoin e ha definito questa tecnologia una frode, ha inventato di recente il proprio sistema di transazioni decentralizzate denominato Quorum - una copia modificata del codice Ethereum.

Blythe Master, una persona importante nel mondo degli investimenti, è diventata CEO di Digital Asset Holding LLC nel 2015, una società di tecnologia finanziaria aperta nel 2014 che sta sviluppando tecnologie basate su blockchain per l'intero settore degli investimenti, servizi finanziari oltre ad essere fornitori di infrastrutture per il mercato, exchanges e banche.

Ripple e il suo ricco direttore, già si presentano come il Bitcoin per le banche.

Per un occhio attento, gli esempi non mancano e tutto ciò che serve è leggere tra le righe per sapere chi sarà il prossimo.

Dopo il crollo del mercato immobiliare del 2008 e il salvataggio delle banche da parte della FED, l'indice Dow Jones è cresciuto di oltre il 300% dal suo minimo di 6626 nel 2008 a 26 667 nel 2018. L'Heng Seng del 200% da 10 600 a 33 642, il DAX del 125% da 3458 a 7781 ed il Nikkei del 245% da 6988 a 24171. Questi incrementi esponenziali sono stati finanziati da fondi pubblici, ma principalmente dalla diminuzione del valore delle valute mondiali, detto quantitative
easing.

Il dollaro USD, come il Denarius al tempo dei Romani, si sta indebolendo. In realtà, tutte le valute mondiali hanno solo il 5% del potere d'acquisto di 100 anni fa, se non meno. Ma quando il prezzo delle valute estere non diminuisce drasticamente perché tutti i paesi fanno lo stesso gioco, è difficile sapere il suo reale potere d'acquisto.

La guerra valutaria è reale e gli effetti collaterali sono disastrosi. In India, il governo aveva informato la popolazione solo 4 ore prima dell'eliminazione di banconote da 500 e 1000 rupie che rappresentano l'80% delle proprie emissioni. Lasciando la sua popolazione, il 95% dei quali usa banconote, in un vicolo cieco.

Dopo aver gonfiato e sgonfiato tutto, il denaro investito nel mercato valutario e i fondi del mercato azionario sono alla ricerca di un nuovo gioco; la vecchia terra è bruciata, vuota. In effetti, la correzione del 70% del prezzo BTC nel gennaio 2018 è un eccellente livello di acquisto a lungo termine e non vi è più motivo di attendere un momento migliore per trasferire il valore. Crediamo fosse ricercato !

All'inizio del 2017, la capitalizzazione degli asset digitali era più o meno $ 27 miliardi USD ed a metà anno di $ 180 miliardi USD. Nel 2018, ora è di circa $ 800 miliardi USD e più di 325.000 transazioni sono processate quotidianamente sulla blockchain Bitcoin.

Il volume giornaliero delle transazioni sul New York Exchange è di circa $ 75 milioni, il volume del mercato dei cambi Forex è di circa $ 4,5 miliardi USD.

Se consideriamo che parte del volume dei mercati tradizionali sarà gradualmente trasferita a questo nuovo mercato, il suo sviluppo è appena iniziato. E per quelli che credono che un crollo del mercato azionario sia imminente, questa affermazione ha ancora più senso.


Analisi Mercato

Gli ultimi progressi nella tecnologia blockchain sono veramente interessanti. Gli sviluppatori che indossano t-shirt con unicorni, lama e dischi volanti ci hanno gentilmente dato gli smart contract.

https://preview.redd.it/wyipyuh0i3m11.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d8c8c1e1fcd58d3ead578e28804451288917ade4


Diversi atomic swap tra blockchain sono già stati fatti senza l'intervento di terzi e il network Lightning è già in uso.
Tutti ne parlano ma siamo ancora senza una soluzione affidabile per negoziare attivamente o algoritmicamente gli asset digitali in un ambiente sicuro e con strumenti professionali.

La prossima rivoluzione sarà morale e la tecnologia blockchain ci darà un nuovo strumento per andare verso questa realtà. Satoshi è stato così gentile da risolvere il problema della doppia spesa, gli smart contract consentono l'esecuzione consensuale senza l'intervento di terzi, gli atomic swaps consentono il trasferimento di valore tra diverse blockchain e il Network Lightning trasferimenti istantanei a basso costo.

Il passo successivo è un exchage liquido e decentralizzato con smart contract e in grado di eseguire atomic swap e migliaia di transazioni al secondo senza problemi. Un'analisi della situazione rivela i difetti del sistema di scambi centralizzato attuale.

In un certo senso, lo scambio di asset digitali centralizzato è già finito, è solo una questione di apparenza se non di tempo. Dati i problemi del passato e la loro incapacità di competere con ciò che sta arrivando, non hanno futuro.
Dobbiamo comunque dare loro credito perché dal 2009 ad oggi il mercato emergente degli asset digitali è stato uno dei più rischiosi. Rischioso per l'utente ma anche per gli exchage stessi: dal punto di vista legislativo, tecnologico e finanziario. Gli imprenditori di questi exchagne hanno dato agli utenti il primo accesso a questo mercato. Dobbiamo essergliene grati.

Sono state create belle piattaforme di trading che forniscono liquidità e buoni spread Bid / Ask oltre a strumenti vanzati come il margine di trading e il margine di finanziamento. Sfortunatamente, la soluzione attualmente in essere non soddisfa le aspettative di una clientela più esperta, se non addirittura l'utente inesperto.

Chi non ha visto il valore del suo account trading ridotto di un terzo, se non scomparso del tutto, dopo che un exchange centralizzato fosse "vittima di un hacker". Una nuova settimana, un nuovo hack in modo sempre più impressionante.
Oggettivamente, la sicurezza degli exchage centralizzati di asset digitali è indubitabilmente inadeguata.

Cosa pensare dei limiti di prelievo giornalieri, altrimenti viene chiesto di pagare le imposte sul reddito al ritiro dei valori sull'exchange, senza una valutazione obiettiva dei guadagni/perdite, altrimenti subire il rifiuto del prelievo. Entro il 2018, tutti gli scambi con sede negli Stati Uniti saranno diventati obsoleti.

L'elenco dellesituazioni inaccettabili è esaustivo e sconcerta il negoziatore più informato.
-Hack settimanali di importo sempre più elevato
- Un exchange popolare chiuso per 72 ore in un mercato attivo 24/24h
- Verifiche di identità senza risposta per più di 3 mesi dopo la richiesta di apertura di un account
- Errori di prelievo automatici nel conto bancario degli utenti che causano situazioni
difficili
- La richiesta di depositi iniziali astronomici
- Troppa leva nei prodotti CFD o nessuna leva per lo spot.
- Quotazioni bloccate, movimenti di prezzo irregolari che attivano gli ordini di stop per poi tornare al prezzo iniziale

Negoziare su questi exchange centralizzati sta mettendo gli utenti in una posizione di ostaggio. Per non citare il loro potere tirannico di quotare, cancellare o negare un asset digitale in modo puramente arbitrario - Bitshares.

E nonostante il loro tentativo di rendere la loro piattaforma di facile utilizzo, la maggior parte di questi exchange non include gli strumenti necessari per la negoziazione attiva o algoritmica.

La presentazione di grafici e strumenti di analisi è per lo più di scarsa qualità, i tipi di ordini sono insufficienti e la loro presentazione confusa. Queste piattaforme sono in effetti la replica amatoriale di strumenti professionali.

Nel migliore dei mondi possibili, uno exchage decentrato risolve questo gap di sicurezza che danneggia gli exchage centralizzati.

Alcune iniziative hanno già mostrato risultati interessanti. Le piattaforme exchange decentralizzate di Bisc, Bitshares e Komodo sono esempi eccellenti.

Bisc consente l'acquisto di asset digitali tramite bonifico bancario, Bitshares può eseguire 100.000 transazioni al secondo (più di Visa e Mastercard combinate) e Komodo consente l'atomic swap - il trasferimento di valori tra diverse blockchain.

Senza nominare le altre caratteristiche ingegnose di queste piattaforme, esse sono un secondo, non trascurabile passo verso un sistema exchange di asset digitali sicuro che sia efficiente e affidabile per i suoi utenti.

Cosa manca se tutti i pezzi del puzzle sono a posto? In effetti, questi exchange decentralizzati hanno una grande debolezza: la loro liquidità.

Se ci si sofferma a studiare questi exchange, questo fatto diventa semplicemente ovvio. Non è realmente possibile negoziare attivamente il BTC/USD con uno spread Bid/Ask di $ 200 altrimenti uno "slippage" di oltre il 4% sul prezzo di entrata a causa della mancanza di volume.

Non si discute su questo punto e l'ultima ICO di exchange decentralizzati non spiega come possano risolvere questo grave problema. È come l'elefante in una stanza.

Questo per non parlare della loro scelta commerciale di offrire a tutti l'opportunità di creare il proprio token sulla propria piattaforma in meno di 5 minuti. Questo approccio peggiora solo la situazione di mancanza di liquidità diminuendo l'elenco degli asset negoziabili presentate agli utenti. Un vero "gratis per tutti".

Ecco perché altre notevoli soluzioni di exchage decentralizzati presentate sotto il modello di token ERC20 non sono davvero interessanti, anche con un volume di scambi rispettabile. Inoltre, è praticamente impossibile valutare il valore di un asset quando la coppia è stabilita con un token della "casa".

E' preferibile un piccolo gruppo di asset digitali "blue chips" per il trading attivo o automatico.

Sfortunatamente, nonostante l'innegabile miglioramento della sicurezza, le soluzioni di exchange decentralizzate non hanno ancora soddisfatto i bisogni dei trader attivi e algoritmici.

Tentatare di fare trading attivo o algoritmica nel mercato dei beni digitali è diventata un'esperienza dolorosa e rischiosa. E la volatilità non è la causa principale di questo rischio.

Gli exchange centralizzati non sono più una soluzione e gli exchage decentralizzati non soddisfano le reali esigenze dei negoziatori.

Che opzioni abbiamo?!

Il concetto di exchange ideale è chiaro, ma non è stato ancora applicato. Questo è comprensibile perché è stato necessario attendere fino a quando ogni parte è pensata con calma, ingegnosamente, inventata.

Il nostro riconoscimento per i suoi sviluppatori è illimitato.

Nonostante l'apertura a concetti innovativi di numerosi exchange decentralizzati , il mondo degli asset digitali non ha ancora infrastrutture di base per stabilire i pilastri del mercato di domani. Educazione di massa, creazione di un wallet facile, sicurezza, liquidità e rapidità nei cambiamenti: c'è ancora molto da fare.

InziderX farà la sua parte fornendo ai trader attivi e algoritmici un exchange sicuro che combina strumenti avanzati di negoziazione con le ultime tecnologie.


La Nostra Visione

La soluzione che il nostro team ha in programma di mettere in preatica è l'exchange InziderX. La nostra missione è creare un exchange decentralizzato che sia facile da usare per i principianti, ma principalmente per i trader attivi e algoritmici con tutte le giuste condizioni per l'esecuzione della loro strategia.

Un exchange decentralizzato, basato sul portafoglio (Dapp), che è liquido e la cui piattaforma di analisi grafica include tutti gli strumenti più avanzati nel suo ambito.

In realtà, InziderX vuole diventare la scelta sensata se non l'unica opzione logica per i negoziatori d'elite e algoritmici. Il nostro obiettivo sarà sempre la qualità degli strumenti disponibili, l'esecuzione e la liquidità degli ordini.

È giunto il momento di un cambiamento, i trader di asset digitali hanno avuto troppe delusioni per rimanere ostaggio di exchange centralizzati hackerati e cambiamenti arbitrari nella legislazione del governo.

InziderX vuole essere lo scambio OTC in cui negoziamo tra gli addetti ai lavori, in modo anonimo.

https://inziderx.io/docs/InziderX.io-Whitepaper-ITA.pdf

#ico #exchange #inziderx #bitcoin #cryptocurrency
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